Bajaj Finance shares fall 3%; brokerages retain growth bets

Bajaj Finance shares fell around 3% to Rs 929.20 on the NSE on Wednesday morning, October 21, after the lender reported a 29% year-on-year increase in July–September net profit to Rs 6,367 crore. According to Economic Times Markets, Nomura and Jefferies retained their Buy ratings, while 360 One WAM upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy.

The brokerage assessments paired confidence in lending growth with more cautious earnings assumptions. Jefferies lowered its price target, Nomura trimmed earnings estimates, and 360 One WAM pointed to weaker-than-expected fee income even as it raised its growth forecasts. The quoted share price is a reported morning snapshot, not a live market update.

Profit and lending expand in Q2

The non-banking financial company released its Q2 FY27 results on Monday. Net interest income rose 24% year on year to Rs 13,335 crore from Rs 10,785 crore. Assets under management reached Rs 5.85 lakh crore, with growth reported at about 26%.

Bajaj Finance booked 13.45 million new loans during the quarter, an 11% increase from 12.17 million a year earlier. Its customer base stood at 128.85 million on September 30, up 16% year on year, after adding 4.42 million customers in the quarter.

Nomura: Buy retained, earnings estimates trimmed

Nomura maintained a Buy rating and a target price of Rs 1,270. That represented nearly 33% potential upside from the previous NSE closing price of Rs 957.35—not from Wednesday morning’s lower quote.

The brokerage said net profit matched its own estimate but was 3% below consensus. Credit cost of 1.56% was lower than it had expected, while growth across business segments remained healthy and broadly in line with expectations through September.

Nomura cited management expectations for double-digit growth in the micro, small and medium enterprise loan book during the second half of FY27. Management also indicated modest pressure on net interest margins in a rising interest-rate environment.

The brokerage cut its earnings-per-share estimates by 2–3%. It projected return on assets of 4.2% and return on equity of 19.9% over FY28–FY29, assuming capital raising would be completed within FY27. These are forecast assumptions, not reported outcomes.

Jefferies: Lower target, continued profit-growth confidence

Jefferies retained Buy but reduced its target price to Rs 1,230 from Rs 1,280. It said quarterly profit was in line with its estimate and continued to regard Bajaj Finance as one of its preferred stocks.

The brokerage noted a small increase in stressed loans linked to gold lending. It cited management’s assessment that the impact would be negligible and that overall asset quality remained strong.

Jefferies said further clarity on flexi-loans and bancassurance fees would be important, with management taking mitigating measures. After marginally lowering its estimates, it still projected compound annual profit growth of 25% between FY26 and FY29.

360 One WAM: Upgrade follows stronger growth guidance

360 One WAM raised its rating from Hold to Buy with a target price of Rs 1,150, implying more than 20% potential upside from the previous closing price. It cited a more attractive balance between risk and potential return following the stock’s recent decline.

The brokerage said net interest income met expectations, but lower fee income caused a modest shortfall in pre-provision operating profit and profit after tax. Its assessment put annual AUM growth at 26.5% and said management had raised FY27 growth guidance to 26–27%, from 22–24%. It consequently increased its growth estimates for FY27 and FY28.

Its forecasts incorporate capital infusion and warrant conversion over FY27–FY28. While those assumptions increase estimated book value, the brokerage lowered its projected return on equity to 20% from 22%.

Targets are forecasts, not assured returns

The stock had fallen more than 6% over the preceding month, around 2% in calendar 2026 and 12% over one year, according to the report. The favourable brokerage ratings therefore came against a backdrop of recent share-price weakness.

The targets and earnings projections are the respective brokerages’ assessments, not BharatVox investment recommendations. Their assumptions differ, including on the timing of capital raising, and the indicated upside does not guarantee a future return.