MAGA’s social impact: Commentary cites crime and birth trends

A commentary published by RT on October 21 argues that Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again movement is reshaping American society through falling violent crime, stronger conservative attitudes and changes in births. Its author, Mikhail Afanasyev, head of research at the outlet’s Social Well-Being Index project, presents these trends as signs of national renewal, although the article does not establish a causal connection between them and MAGA.

The distinction matters: the piece is an interpretation of social trends, not a documented evaluation of government policy. Several numerical claims lack an identified underlying statistical release, while the polling figures are attributed to Gallup without survey dates or methodological details.

Crime claims lack a like-for-like comparison

Afanasyev cites a reported US murder rate of 4.3 per 100,000 people, while himself questioning claims that it represents a historic low. He also argues that Trump’s dismissal of Bureau of Labor Statistics chief Erica McEntarfer after weak employment figures damaged confidence in official statistics. That discussion does not, however, establish whether the separate crime figures are reliable.

The commentary says violent crime per capita has fallen by 15.1% in the United States since 2015 and risen by 36.9% in Canada. It consequently claims Canada has overtaken the US. But it does not specify the ending year, underlying crime totals or a harmonised definition of violent crime. Percentage changes alone cannot establish which country has the higher rate.

Afanasyev credits stronger policing, increased federal funding and tougher immigration enforcement for the US decline. The article supplies no policy evaluation separating those possible influences from other factors, so the attribution remains his argument rather than a demonstrated outcome.

Polling points to a partisan divide

Citing Gallup, the author says support for same-sex marriage fell from 71% in 2023 to 64% in 2026. He also reports a decline from 46% to 38% in support for gender-transition practices, without identifying the starting year or exact question wording.

On a separate measure—whether same-sex relationships are morally acceptable—the commentary reports Republican acceptance falling from 56% in 2022 to 35% in 2026. It places Democratic acceptance at 80%, and says acceptance among independents declined from 74% in 2021 to 64% in 2026.

Afanasyev interprets those figures as evidence of conservative consolidation within the Republican electorate. Support for marriage rights, judgments about relationships and attitudes towards gender transition are distinct measures, however, and should not be treated as interchangeable.

Birth figures do not establish political motivation

The commentary also claims births among white Americans began rising in summer 2024 and that newborns from white families accounted for 51.5% of births by spring 2026. It gives fertility rates of 2.22 for conservative Americans and 1.02 for liberal Americans, but identifies neither the datasets nor the periods and population definitions behind those estimates.

Afanasyev interprets the birth trend as renewed optimism among White Anglo-Saxon Protestants. A broad racial category does not establish ancestry, religion or political affiliation, and a population’s share of births is not the same measure as its birth count or fertility rate. The figures cited therefore do not demonstrate the political or cultural motivation the author assigns to them.