Arab Parties Could Hold Balance in Israeli Election

Arab-majority parties could hold the balance of power after Israel’s general election next week, with polls suggesting that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s alliance nor the principal opposition bloc can secure a parliamentary majority, BBC News reported on 22 October.

Polling cited in the report puts Netanyahu’s religious-nationalist alliance and the centre-right Change Bloc, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, at roughly 50 seats each in the 120-member parliament. Arab-majority groupings could collectively win 13 or 14 seats. Those projections are not election results, and the report does not provide a complete seat distribution.

The obstacle is political as much as numerical: Eisenkot has ruled out forming a government with Arab parties, citing differences in values. If the projections hold, opponents seeking to replace Netanyahu could face pressure to reconsider either their rejection of Arab partners or their refusal to work with the prime minister.

Two approaches to political influence

In Nazareth, students have been distributing leaflets encouraging Arab citizens to vote. Arab Israelis account for about one-fifth of the population, and many identify as Palestinian citizens of Israel. Disillusionment has previously depressed participation, but campaigners are seeking to turn dissatisfaction with the governing coalition into votes.

The two Arab-majority groupings are pursuing different routes to influence. Mansour Abbas’s United Arab List wants to enter the next government. Abbas has placed Yoav Segalovitz, a Jewish former police official and centrist parliamentarian, second on his electoral slate and believes opposition leaders may become more receptive to cooperation after voting.

The Joint Arab List, comprising Hadash, Balad and Taal, instead envisages supporting a replacement for Netanyahu’s government from the opposition in exchange for policy commitments. Its platform includes equal rights for Arab citizens, an end to Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories and a two-state solution.

Crime makes turnout a pressing issue

Gang violence is a central electoral concern. A September poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 53.5% of Arab citizens identified it as the most important factor in deciding which party to support. The Abraham Initiatives, a Jewish-Arab coexistence organisation, recorded 252 murders within the community in 2025, described as a record high.

In Jaffa, bereaved father Ziad Samouni is urging participation after his son Hussein was shot dead near home in November 2025. The report says no arrests have been made. Samouni accused authorities of allowing violence to continue; that allegation does not establish deliberate police inaction. Police said the investigation remained active and that they treated every case of violence and crime seriously.

Discrimination allegations and a court ruling

The campaign is unfolding amid heightened tensions following the Hamas-led assault of 7 October 2023 and the subsequent Gaza war. Suha Salman Mousa of the Mossawa Centre accused ministers of discrimination and incitement against Arab citizens. Civil society organisations also alleged disproportionate cuts to Arab communities’ budgets. The government’s stated explanation is that reductions are necessary to finance wartime defence and security.

Netanyahu’s campaign has portrayed potential cooperation between opposition leaders and Arab parties as a danger, including through billboards and AI-generated videos depicting opponents embracing Arab leaders. Radio Nas anchor and political analyst Mohammed Magadli argued that such campaigning undermines Arab parties’ legitimacy; that is his assessment, rather than an independently established motive.

This month, Israel’s Supreme Court overturned the Central Elections Committee’s decision to disqualify both Arab lists and two of their members. The coalition-dominated committee had alleged violations of a law barring candidates who deny Israel’s existence as a Jewish state. The parties and representatives strongly rejected that allegation.