Copper holds near $14,353 as US tariff uncertainty weighs

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange edged up 0.1% to $14,353 a metric ton at 0955 GMT on Tuesday, October 20, extending a third consecutive session of narrow trading. The Economic Times Markets, citing Reuters, reported that uncertainty over possible US import tariffs and the inflation risks of higher oil prices were keeping traders cautious.

The muted session followed a substantial rally. Panmure Liberum analyst Tom Price said in a note that copper had risen 55% since Donald Trump returned to the US presidency in January 2025, even as global demand declined 0.5% to 27 million metric tons. The report did not specify the period covered by that demand comparison.

China's scrap shortage supports refined copper

A shortage of copper scrap in China was helping underpin demand for refined metal. Goldman Sachs said the shortfall was prompting drawdowns of domestic inventories and increasing China's need for refined copper, while US buyers continued importing metal and accumulating stocks ahead of potential tariffs.

The Yangshan copper premium, an indicator of Chinese demand for imported copper, rose 0.7% to $138 a ton—its highest level in almost four years. That strength offered support, although Chinese broker Everbright Futures said reluctance to buy at elevated prices, alongside tariff uncertainty, could keep copper trading within a narrow band in the near term.

US stockpile grows as tariff decision remains pending

The White House had yet to decide on tariffs covering refined copper. Reuters reported in September, citing people familiar with the matter, that the administration was placing greater emphasis on affordability ahead of November's midterm elections.

Copper inventories on Comex reached a record 718,199 metric tons, compared with 87,241 metric tons in January 2025. The build-up highlighted the concentration of metal in the US even as China's scrap shortage increased its need for refined supplies.

Goldman Sachs forecast copper prices averaging $15,400 a ton in 2027, alongside an end-2026 forecast of $14,700 a ton. These are forecasts rather than realised prices, and the annual-average projection is not directly equivalent to the year-end estimate.

Chile disruptions keep supply in focus

BHP Group and Anglo American reported copper production declines of 19% and 5%, respectively, linked to disruptions in Chile. Both companies nevertheless retained their full-year output guidance.

Other LME metals moved in different directions: aluminium fell 0.8% to $2,993 a ton and zinc dropped 0.7% to $3,688, while nickel rose 0.5% to $15,600. Tin gained 0.1%, and lead was unchanged.