Rupee ends at 94.9250 as dollar demand wipes out early gains

The Indian rupee ended Monday, October 19, at 94.9250 against the US dollar, almost unchanged from Friday, as dollar purchases by importers and a decline in domestic shares erased early gains, Economic Times Markets reported.

The currency traded between 94.76 and 94.96 during a relatively quiet session. Importers' demand for dollars weighed on the rupee even as Brent crude fell about 2% to $108 a barrel, according to traders cited in the report.

The Nifty 50 lost more than 1%, with heavyweight information technology and financial stocks dragging the index lower. Both sectors have substantial foreign-investor ownership, although the report did not quantify foreign equity flows for the session.

Oil relief meets geopolitical uncertainty

The report linked the decline in oil prices to US President Donald Trump's decision to waive some sanctions on Russia. It also cited US Secretary of State Marco Rubio as saying Trump would take up to 60 days to assess the effects of sanctions and tariffs on the global economy.

Traders remained cautious about the possibility of renewed conflict in the Middle East. A foreign-bank FX salesperson identified the US midterm elections as a near-term risk event, with the Iran conflict potentially returning to prominence afterwards or becoming less important for markets. The report said Trump had previously stated that the US would not attack Iran before the November vote.

RBI minutes to guide rate expectations

The next domestic policy focus is the release of minutes from the Reserve Bank of India's October meeting, which the report described as delivering its first interest-rate increase in four years. Investors will look for indications of the pace and size of any further tightening.

ANZ expects a 25-basis-point rate increase in December, according to a note cited in the report. The bank said continued currency pressure despite recent RBI measures would increase the likelihood of either a 50-basis-point rise or a 25-basis-point repo-rate increase alongside a higher Marginal Standing Facility rate to widen the policy corridor. These are ANZ's forecasts, not announced RBI decisions.