US–India Trade: The Numbers Behind the Negotiating Framework

A large relationship, viewed through two official records

India sold far more goods to the United States than it bought from it in calendar year 2024. US Census Bureau figures put American goods imports from India at $87.2848 billion and exports to India at $41.5812 billion. Together, those flows totalled $128.8660 billion; the US merchandise deficit was $45.7036 billion.

These figures help explain the stakes behind the terms of reference for a bilateral trade agreement announced by US Vice President JD Vance and Prime Minister Narendra Modi on 21 April 2025. The Office of the United States Trade Representative described a framework for negotiations, not a completed settlement.

This report examines that historical framework and its 2024 statistical baseline. It does not claim that the talks remain at that stage today or that a final agreement has been implemented. The sources measure different things: Census records trade flows, while USTR states Washington’s negotiating priorities.

What the chart measures—and leaves out

The trade figures are nominal US dollars, reported by Census in millions and converted here to billions. They are not seasonally adjusted. Imports and exports are defined from the US perspective: imports are goods arriving from India; exports are goods sent to India.

The chart rounds both flows to one decimal place. It does not include services, investment, remittances or the broader value of bilateral commercial links. Nor should a calendar-year US merchandise series be silently combined with an Indian fiscal-year series.

The current Census table records a 2024 deficit of $45.7036 billion, consistent with USTR’s rounded $45.7 billion figure. USTR’s April 2025 fact sheet also reported a 5.1% increase from 2023. Historical statistics can be revised: its reported growth rate should not be treated as a calculation from a later version of the Census series.

Washington’s objectives were not India’s final commitments

USTR welcomed tariff reductions India had implemented around Modi’s February 2025 meeting with President Donald Trump and described Indian willingness to negotiate further reductions on US products. The fact sheet framed the talks around US investment, jobs, manufacturing and agricultural producers.

It did not supply an itemised product schedule, reciprocal US concessions or implementation dates. Those omissions matter for businesses trying to assess which goods might become cheaper, which sectors could face more competition and what market access Indian exporters might obtain.

The US statement linked its deficit to trade barriers. That is Washington’s stated argument; the short document provides no methodology isolating the contribution of particular tariffs or restrictions. A bilateral trade balance alone cannot establish that causal claim.

Analysis: India’s interests require a reciprocal test

For India, accepting a framework for discussion is different from accepting every objective expressed by the other negotiating party. The economic test is the actual reciprocal bargain: market access, predictable rules, consumer costs and the consequences for domestic producers.

A merchandise surplus is not, by itself, proof of wrongdoing, just as a large trade relationship is not proof that all policy disagreements have disappeared. The data establish scale and direction. Judgments about fairness or strategic dependence need evidence beyond a single balance figure.

A useful assessment of any subsequent settlement must start with its legal text, sectoral coverage and implementation record. Until those documents are examined, the April 2025 framework should be read as an announced basis for negotiation—not as evidence that India surrendered discretion over its trade policy.

The source record

Trade data: US Census Bureau, Trade in Goods with India, calendar-year 2024 totals, https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5330.html. Values are nominal US dollars, not seasonally adjusted; details may differ from totals due to rounding.

Negotiating record: Office of the United States Trade Representative, Fact Sheet: U.S.-India Establish Terms of Reference for Bilateral Trade Agreement, 21 April 2025, https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/fact-sheets/2025/april/fact-sheet-us-india-establish-terms-reference-bilateral-trade-agreement. This is a US official statement, not an independent assessment or the final agreement text.